Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security and author of Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant, examines the nature, strategy and successes of ISIS and assess the international campaign against it.
The rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is now a defining feature of the fragmenting Middle Eastern landscape. The jihadi movement has seized territory in both Syria and Iraq, and the US-led international coalition against I thas suffered serious setbacks.
ISIS’s evolving military tactics and opportunism, intense social media engagement and appeal to foreign recruits reveal a sophisticated, determined organisation. The ISIS model of establishing puritanical governance increasingly appeals to jihadi movements worldwide. Political weakness and sectarianism in Baghdad, combined with enduring problems of military leadership and capacity, have allowed ISIS to expand in Anbar province. There, anti-ISIS Sunni groups have been equally distrustful of the Iraqi government and the US. The prospect of deploying Shia militias, some of which are Iranian-backed, may complicate matters further.
The multifaceted civil war in Syria and the weakening Assad regime are opening opportunities for the jihadi movement there, while the international coalition assembled by the US continues to suffer from internal divisions about strategy. Frustrated by the seeming US disinterest in combating Bashar Al-Assad, Turkey and the Gulf states are charting their own course.
defence logistics agency IISS Webinar: The Expansion of ISIS in a Regional Context | |
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